North America’s LNG Export Capacity: Doubling by 2029 and Reshaping Global Energy Flows

Tony Zelinski
13 minutes ago
3 min read

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently highlighted a transformative trend: North America’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity is projected to more than double by 2029. This isn’t just a regional milestone—it’s a global inflection point that will redefine trade flows, pricing dynamics, and geopolitical leverage in the energy sector.

The Scale of Expansion

United States: Already the world’s largest LNG exporter with 15.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of capacity, the U.S. plans to add nearly 14 Bcf/d between 2025 and 2029. Most of this growth will be concentrated along the Gulf Coast, reinforcing its role as the Atlantic Basin’s LNG hub. Yet, pipeline delays remain a critical risk factor for timely supply.
Canada: LNG Canada shipped its first cargo in mid-2025, marking the country’s entry into the LNG export market. With two trains producing 1.84 Bcf/d, full capacity is expected in 2026. A proposed second phase could double output to 3.68 Bcf/d, positioning Canada as a strategic supplier to Asia—especially given its west coast location, which cuts shipping times to Asian markets by 50% compared to Gulf Coast routes.
Mexico: Two projects under construction—Fast LNG Altamira and Energía Costa Azul—will add 0.6 Bcf/d of export capacity—both source feedgas from U.S. pipelines, underscoring the cross-border integration of North American energy infrastructure.

By 2029, North America’s total LNG export capacity is expected to reach 28.7 Bcf/d, accounting for more than half of global additions during this period.

Global Implications

This surge in capacity is not occurring in isolation. It intersects with several global energy themes:

Price Volatility: With North America supplying such a large share of incremental LNG, global prices may face downward pressure during oversupply periods.
Geopolitical Leverage: LNG exports are increasingly viewed as a tool of foreign policy. North America’s dominance will strengthen its influence in energy diplomacy, particularly in Europe and Asia.
Diversification of Routes: Canada’s west coast projects provide faster access to Asia, reducing reliance on longer Gulf Coast shipping routes and diversifying North America’s export geography.
Climate Considerations: While LNG is often positioned as a “bridge fuel,” the sheer scale of expansion raises questions about long-term climate commitments and the balance between energy security and decarbonization.

Strategic Takeaways for Stakeholders

For energy professionals, investors, and policymakers, several themes stand out:

Infrastructure Risk: Pipeline bottlenecks could delay U.S. projects, making midstream development as critical as liquefaction capacity.
Asian Market Advantage: Canada’s projects will be uniquely positioned to serve Asia efficiently, potentially commanding premium pricing.
Cross-Border Collaboration: Mexico’s reliance on U.S. feedgas highlights the interconnectedness of regional energy systems and the importance of cooperative policy frameworks.
Investor Opportunity: With over 50% of global LNG growth concentrated in North America, capital allocation decisions in this sector will carry outsized influence on global markets.

Looking Ahead

North America’s LNG expansion is more than a capacity story—it’s about reshaping the global energy map. By 2029, the region will not only dominate LNG supply but also redefine trade flows, pricing structures, and geopolitical dynamics. For clients, investors, and policymakers, the challenge is clear: anticipate the risks, seize the opportunities, and prepare for a more interconnected and competitive global gas market.

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