Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina: Driving Global Oil Growth in 2026

Tony Zelinski
16 minutes ago
2 min read

Global energy markets are entering 2026 with a notable shift: Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina are expected to account for half of the world’s crude oil production growth next year. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, global crude oil supply is forecast to rise by 0.8 million barrels per day (b/d), with these three South American producers contributing 0.4 million b/d of that increase.

Key Drivers of Growth

• Brazil: Offshore deepwater projects are transforming Brazil’s production profile. The start-up of Equinor’s Bacalhau field in late 2025 marked the country’s first internationally operated project. With additional Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessels scheduled in the Petrobras-operated Buzios field, Brazil’s output is projected to average 4.0 million b/d in 2026, a record high.

• Guyana: In just five years, Guyana’s oil production has surged ten-fold, averaging 750,000 b/d in 2025. ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail project reached full capacity this year, pushing November production above 900,000 b/d. With the Uaru project slated for 2026, Guyana is on track to surpass 1 million b/d by 2027, cementing its role as a rising global supplier.

• Argentina: Once in decline, Argentina’s oil sector has been revitalized by the Vaca Muerta shale formation, one of the few unconventional oil resources outside the U.S. producing at scale. Production averaged 740,000 b/d in 2025 and is forecast to climb to 810,000 b/d in 2026, with shale accounting for more than 60% of output.

Market Context

This growth comes against the backdrop of OPEC+ production cuts, which offset non-OPEC+ gains in 2024 and briefly reduced global supply. However, 2025 saw a rebound, with global production rising by 2.2 million b/d, largely driven by non-OPEC+ countries. The EIA notes that South America’s contribution is increasingly pivotal, with Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina together responsible for 28% of global growth in 2025.

Strategic Implications

For energy markets, these developments highlight:

• Diversification of supply: Non-OPEC+ producers are reshaping global balances, reducing reliance on traditional exporters.

• Investment opportunities: Offshore and shale projects in South America are attracting international capital and technology partnerships.

• Geopolitical shifts: Guyana’s growing exports to Asia signal evolving trade flows that could alter long-standing supply chains.

Conclusion

As 2026 approaches, the spotlight is firmly on South America. Brazil’s offshore expansion, Guyana’s meteoric rise, and Argentina’s shale revival are collectively reshaping global oil dynamics. For investors, policymakers, and energy strategists, these trends underscore the importance of monitoring non-OPEC+ growth as a counterbalance to OPEC+ production decisions.

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