Energy Markets Enter a New Phase: U.S. Crude Output to Ease in 2026
- Tony Zelinski
- 1 day ago
- 2 min read
After four years of steady growth, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that crude oil production will decline slightly in 2026, averaging 13.5 million barrels per day—about 100,000 barrels less than in 2025.
This marks a turning point after consecutive increases of 0.3 million barrels per day in 2024 and 0.4 million barrels per day in 2025, driven largely by the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico.
The forecast highlights a nuanced picture: modest gains in Alaska, the Federal Gulf of Mexico, and the Permian Basin will be offset by declines elsewhere. For energy professionals and market watchers, the real story lies in pricing. The EIA expects West Texas Intermediate crude to average $65 per barrel in 2025 and $51 per barrel in 2026, both significantly lower than the 2024 average of $77
What This Means for the Market
Volatility is easing: After years of price fluctuations, the forecast suggests a more stable pricing environment.
Cost dynamics shift: Lower crude prices could reshape procurement strategies, hedging decisions, and investment priorities.
Regional disparities matter: The Permian Basin continues to anchor U.S. production, but declines in other regions underscore the importance of diversified supply strategies.
Strategic Takeaways
For businesses and investors, this forecast is more than numbers—it’s a signal to reassess long-term energy strategies. Lower prices may create opportunities for cost savings, but they also demand vigilance in risk management.
Companies that align procurement, hedging, and operational planning with these trends will be better positioned to thrive in a shifting market.
At Premier Energy Management, we view this as a pivotal moment for clients to balance short-term savings with long-term resilience. The key is not just reacting to lower prices, but proactively structuring strategies that anticipate future volatility.
Closing Thought
Energy markets never stand still. As 2026 approaches, the challenge is clear: turn forecasted declines into a strategic advantage.
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