NYMEX Natural Gas Market Update — January 05, 2026

Tony Zelinski
2 days ago
2 min read

Natural gas futures opened the week under pressure, with front‑month NYMEX prices sliding toward $3.48/MMBtu as warmer‑than‑normal January weather continues to suppress heating demand across major U.S. load centers. The move extends a month‑long downtrend, with prices now ~29% lower than early December and modestly below year‑ago levels.

Price Action

Front‑month NYMEX Natural Gas: $3.48/MMBtu, down 3.8% on the day
Month-over-month: –29%
Year-over-year: –5%
Henry Hub February contract: Trading near $3.44–$3.46/MMBtu during morning Globex hours

The market remains highly sensitive to weather model shifts, with traders fading rallies amid persistent warmth and ample supply.

Key Drivers

1. Warm January Forecasts

Meteorological models indicate that above-normal temperatures will dominate the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. from January 7 to 16, sharply reducing expected heating demand and exerting downward pressure on prompt-month pricing.

2. Storage & Fundamentals

Last EIA report (week ending Dec. 26):
- 38 Bcf withdrawal, in line with expectations
- Working gas: 3,375 Bcf
- 1.6% below last year, 1.7% above the five‑year average

Storage remains comfortable for early January, limiting upside momentum.

3. Global Market Context

TTF: ~€28/MWh, down modestly on the day
UK NBP: ~73.55 p/th, also lower
Markets are monitoring geopolitical developments in Venezuela, though impacts are currently more pronounced in crude than gas.

Technical Picture

Natural gas futures have broken below the late-December support levels, with momentum indicators pointing to a bearish trend. A return to colder weather would be required to challenge resistance in the $3.70–$3.90/MMBtu range.

What to Watch

Thursday’s EIA storage report — expected to show another light withdrawal
Short‑term weather model volatility
LNG feedgas flows, which remain structurally supportive but not enough to offset weak domestic demand

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