PJM Backstop Target Could Shrink Dramatically, Analysts Say — But theLong-Term Shortfall Story Hasn't Changed
A new analyst estimate suggests the Reliability Backstop Procurement now pending before FERC could end up far smaller than the roughly 6,800 MW shortfall it was designed to cover.
According to a Jefferies analysis reported November 3, PJM utilities including PPL Electric, FirstEnergy, and AES Ohio have lowered their near-term large-load forecasts by a combined 6.5 GW in filings to PJM's Load Analysis Subcommittee. If those lower forecasts hold, the recalculated backstop target could be as small as roughly 630 MW — less than a tenth of the original figure.
Important context: this is an analyst estimate, not a PJM determination. PJM has not set a revised target. Under the amended filing PJM submitted October 29, the final target and supply determination comes April 28, 2027, with the bid window running March 1–28, 2027 and results posted May 10, 2027. The recalculation could still move in either direction before then.
And the longer-term picture points the other way. The same subcommittee discussion included a Charles River Associates finding of a roughly 11.5 GW PJM shortfall by 2030 — a reminder that even if the 2028/29 backstop shrinks, the region's underlying supply-demand gap is not going away.
What this means for buyers
If the backstop target does shrink toward the Jefferies estimate, the cost exposure attached to the 2028/29 procurement would be materially smaller than feared when the 6,800 MW figure was announced. But two things have not changed: FERC has still not acted on the amended October 29 filing, so the auction remains suspended and nothing is final; and the longer-term capacity tightness behind the backstop — driven by large-load growth — is still building toward 2030. For 2028/29 contracting, the prudent read is that backstop-related costs look smaller than originally feared, but they are not yet quantifiable, and the structural story beyond 2028/29 is unchanged. We will update this note when FERC responds to the amended filing, or PJM publishes its recalculated target.
This update is market information for planning purposes and is not legal or regulatory advice.
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