NYMEX Natural Gas Market Update — January 20, 2026

Tony Zelinski
1 day ago
2 min read

NYMEX natural gas is trading in a soft but volatile band as the market digests a modest storage withdrawal, ample inventories versus history, and a mixed weather pattern that has so far underdelivered on sustained cold. Futures remain under pressure compared with early January highs, with the front of the curve anchored near the low–mid‑$3s.

Futures and spot pricing

Front-month NYMEX (Feb ’26): The February 2026 NYMEX contract last settled near $3.12/MMBtu as of January 14, down about $0.41 on the week and marking the lowest value for this contract since mid‑2020.
Prompt Henry Hub futures (NGG26): CME data show the actively traded Henry Hub contract around $3.52/MMBtu as of January 18, reflecting a sharp single‑day gain of roughly 13% but still within a broader, range‑bound pattern.
Henry Hub spot: The Henry Hub spot price is holding close to $3.12/MMBtu, essentially flat week‑on‑week, underscoring a market that is well supplied despite episodic volatility.

The strip from February 2026 through January 2027 has eased to roughly $3.32/MMBtu, signaling that the market continues to price in comfortable balances beyond the current winter.

Storage and balances

Total working gas: 3,185 Bcf as of January 9, 2026.
Weekly change: Net withdrawal of 71 Bcf from the prior week.
Year-on-year: Inventories are 33 Bcf above last year at this time.
Versus 5‑year average: 106 Bcf above the 2021–2025 five‑year average of 3,079 Bcf, and firmly within the historical range.

The combination of only moderate withdrawals and a persistent surplus to both last year and the five‑year average continues to cap upside, even when weather or daily price action injects short‑term volatility.

Weather, regional dynamics, and demand signals

West and Pacific Northwest: Spot prices have been notably weak, with hubs like Northwest Sumas and PG&E Citygate printing some of the lowest real January prices since at least 1999, as strong seasonal hydro output displaces gas‑fired generation.
Generation mix: In the Pacific Northwest, hydro has recently supplied about 42% of electricity versus 18% from natural gas, compared with a three‑year average of 30% hydro and 22% gas—another clear headwind for regional gas demand.
Temperatures: Average Western region temperatures have been near normal, with only marginally higher heating degree days than last week, limiting incremental residential/commercial demand.

Nationally, the pattern is one of intermittent cold rather than sustained, broad-based Arctic outbreaks—enough to support seasonal demand, but not enough to erode the storage surplus materially.

Market drivers to watch

Weather path into late January/early February: Any shift toward a more persistent cold regime across the Midwest and East would be the primary catalyst for a stronger prompt‑month rally; continued “on‑off” cold favors a grind in the low–mid‑$3s.
Storage trajectory: With inventories already above both last year and the five‑year average, the market will be highly sensitive to any larger‑than‑expected draws that begin to narrow that surplus.
LNG and exports: While not detailed in the latest weekly snapshot, LNG feedgas demand and export flows remain a structural support, but so far have not been enough to offset the comfort provided by robust storage and muted weather risk.