NYMEX Natural Gas Market Update — December 23, 2025
- Tony Zelinski
- 5 hours ago
- 2 min read
Price Action
Henry Hub front-month futures traded around $4.38/MMBtu, up more than 10% day-over-day as the market rebounded from last week’s seven‑week lows.
Despite today’s rally, prices remain down ~6% month-over-month, though still ~25% higher than this time last year.
Drivers Behind Today’s Move
1. Near-Record LNG Export Flows
LNG feedgas deliveries are averaging 18.5 Bcf/d in December, surpassing November’s record and providing a strong floor under domestic pricing.
2. Weather: Warmer Trends Limiting Upside
Forecasts continue to skew warmer-than-normal across major heating regions, reducing expected winter demand and keeping rallies in check.
3. Production Remains Elevated
U.S. dry gas output is hovering near record highs, contributing to persistent supply pressure despite rising exports.
Storage & Fundamentals
The latest EIA report showed a 167 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 12 — lighter than expectations and reinforcing the “comfortable storage” narrative.
Working gas in storage stands at 3,579 Bcf, 0.9% above the five-year average and 1.7% below last year.
Global Context
Europe: TTF trading near €27/MWh, supported by strong Norwegian flows and ample LNG availability.
Asia: Mixed signals — China’s domestic LNG prices are sliding on weak winter demand, while Myanmar prepares to resume LNG imports.
Technical Picture
Futures are testing the $4.20–$4.40 resistance band, a key psychological and technical level that has capped rallies throughout Q4.
A sustained breakout could open the door toward $4.75–$5.00, but warm weather and high production remain strong headwinds.
What to Watch Next
Holiday-delayed EIA storage report (now releasing December 29).
Weather model volatility — any shift toward colder January patterns could quickly tighten balances.
LNG feedgas flows, which continue to be the most supportive bullish factor.
Would you like a review of your facility's energy plan? We are here to help!
Comments