⚡Natural Gas MarketWatch — November 9, 2026: December Gas Knocks on $3.00 as Record LNG Flows Meet Falling Output

Tony Zelinski

24 hours ago

5 min read

⚡Natural Gas MarketWatch — November 9, 2026: December Gas Knocks on $3.00 as Record LNG Flows Meet Falling Output

Natural gas ended the week on the front foot. December futures rallied Friday on record LNG export demand, falling domestic production, and cooler late-November forecasts, settling just two-tenths of a cent below the psychologically important $3.00 level — the contract's best close since October 19. Early Monday electronic trading pushed the contract above $3.02, suggesting buyers are not done yet. The rally stands in sharp contrast to crude oil, which suffered one of its worst weeks since the pandemic as post-midterm diplomacy hopes drained the war premium from the energy complex.

Market Recap

The NYMEX December 2026 contract settled Friday at $2.998 per MMBtu, up 5.1 cents (+1.73%) on the day and up 10.0 cents (+3.45%) for the week, against Friday, October 30's $2.898 close. The contract traded as high as $3.04 intraday before settling a hair under $3.00. For the week, natural gas was the energy complex's lone winner: WTI crude fell 12.7%, Brent 13.3%, heating oil roughly 36 cents a gallon, and RBOB gasoline 12.0%.

Key Bullish and Bearish Drivers

Bullish: LNG feedgas is running at record pace. Flows to the nine major U.S. export plants averaged 18.8 Bcf/d so far in November — on track to tie April's monthly record — and daily flows were headed for an all-time high of 19.79 Bcf/d on Friday, topping the 19.78 Bcf/d set October 18. At the same time, Lower 48 production has slipped to 111.6 Bcf/d so far in November, down from 113.4 Bcf/d in October and the 115.0 Bcf/d monthly record set in August. LSEG expects total Lower 48 demand, including exports, to climb from 107.3 Bcf/d this week to 114 Bcf/d next week and 118.4 Bcf/d in two weeks as cooler late-November air arrives.

Bearish: the weather outlook still leans warm. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center favors above-normal temperatures across most of the Lower 48 through November 21, with only the East running near to below normal in the near term, and the seasonal winter outlook leans warm across the northern U.S. under a strong El Niño. Storage sits comfortably above the five-year average, and the crude sell-off keeps a lid on energy sentiment broadly.

Storage Fundamentals

The EIA's November 5 report — the latest available, covering the week ended October 30 — showed a 77 Bcf injection, below the 81 Bcf consensus and above the 61 Bcf five-year average. Total working gas now stands at 3,801 Bcf, up 54 Bcf (+1.4%) versus the five-year average of 3,747 Bcf but still 109 Bcf (−2.8%) below last year's 3,910 Bcf. The regional picture is uneven: South Central storage of 1,208 Bcf sits below its 1,221 Bcf five-year average, with salt-cavern stocks of 296 Bcf versus a 322 Bcf norm — the fast-cycle storage that matters most on a cold snap. Bank of America projects end-of-season storage near 3.886 Tcf. Note the calendar: the next storage report arrives Friday, November 13, delayed from the usual Thursday by the Veterans Day holiday. Analysts expect the week ended November 6 to show storage roughly 2.1% above normal.

Regional Basis Markets

The Northeast remains a market of two realities. Spot gas is cheap right now — Algonquin Citygate traded near $2.09 in late October, and Transco Zone 6 New York near $0.88 in mid-October, deep discounts to Henry Hub as mild weather and trapped Appalachian supply weigh on the region. But January 2027 forwards at Algonquin still top $20/MMBtu, with January basis near $17.64 over Henry Hub and the December–February average at $12.89. The problem is not supply; it is pipe. With EIA projecting heating oil to average $5.26 per gallon this winter and oil-heated homes facing roughly 21% higher heating bills, dual-fuel generators have less cushion than usual if a cold snap triggers the familiar New England basis blowout. Longer term, Enbridge's Project Beacon would add 300 MMcf/d of firm capacity to the Algonquin system, with service targeted as early as November 2030.

Production Trends

Output is easing from record highs but remains near all-time levels. Lower 48 production averaged 111.6 Bcf/d so far in November, down from 113.4 Bcf/d in October and 115.0 Bcf/d in August. Soft Northeast prices are still keeping an estimated 2.5–3.0 Bcf/d of supply offline versus late October, though any price strength over the next month is likely to bring curtailed volumes back. EIA expects output to average 112.2 Bcf/d for 2026 and rise to a record 116.1 Bcf/d in 2027, driven by Permian growth and new pipeline capacity. The EIA's November Short-Term Energy Outlook arrives Tuesday, November 10.

Broader Energy Context

Crude's collapse dominated the week. WTI settled Friday at $90.83/bbl (+0.3% on the day, −12.7% on the week) and Brent at $98.32/bbl (+0.03% on the day, −13.3% on the week) — Brent's largest weekly loss since April 2020. Midterm election results raised expectations that the administration will pursue a diplomatic solution with Iran, and President Trump said Sunday that further major strikes are "highly unlikely" if negotiations produce substantial progress, though Secretary of State Rubio later called Iranian demands unacceptable. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities continue, and the IEA's November 3 Global Gas Security Review forecasts global LNG supply falling about 3% in 2026 under continued Hormuz disruption. Heating oil (ULSD) settled Friday at $4.3317/gal (−0.46% on the day, roughly 36 cents lower on the week), while RBOB gasoline settled at $2.7767/gal (+0.48% on the day, −12.03% on the week). Retail gasoline has fallen nearly 14 cents a gallon in a week and could dip below $4.00 nationally for the first time since mid-July.

What Energy Buyers Should Watch

The next EIA storage report, Friday, November 13 (delayed by Veterans Day) — watch South Central salt storage and the surplus versus the five-year average.
EIA's November Short-Term Energy Outlook, Tuesday, November 10, for updated production and winter price forecasts.
Late-November forecast shifts — demand is projected to jump to 118.4 Bcf/d within two weeks if cooler air verifies.
LNG feedgas holding near record levels — exports are absorbing roughly a fifth of U.S. production.
January Algonquin basis — the first real cold snap in the Northeast can move basis from $2 to $10+ in days.
Iran diplomacy headlines — crude's war premium is unwinding fast, and any breakdown in talks reprices the whole complex.

Premier Energy Management Perspective

This is a market balanced on a knife's edge between two stories. The national picture is comfortable — storage above the five-year average, production near records, and warm forecasts through late November. But the marginal barrels and molecules tell a different story: LNG exports are setting records, production is slipping, and the first cold snap will test a South Central storage position that is already below normal. For buyers in New Jersey and Massachusetts, the lesson is the same as ever: Henry Hub is not your price. Basis is your price, and New England winter basis is priced for exactly the kind of cold snap the forecasts have not yet delivered. Locking winter positions while the national market is calm costs far less than chasing them after the first freeze.

Market Bottom Line

December gas is knocking on $3.00, supported by record LNG demand and falling production, but capped by warm forecasts and comfortable storage. The balance flips quickly if late-November cold verifies — and with demand projected to rise more than 10 Bcf/d over the next two weeks, buyers should treat this calm as a window, not a forecast.