⚡Natural Gas MarketWatch — November 13, 2026: December Jumps 11% on the Week as the Nor'easter Arrives

Tony Zelinski

3 hours ago

6 min read

⚡Natural Gas MarketWatch — November 13, 2026: December Jumps 11% on the Week as the Nor'easter Arrives

The rally has a foundation now. December natural gas settled Thursday at $3.34/MMBtu — its highest daily settlement since June — capping an 11.4% weekly surge as the season's first nor'easter swept into the Northeast, LNG feedgas set records, and the largest speculator short position in the market's history kept unwinding. Early Friday, the contract is holding near $3.31 after the EIA storage report landed at 10:30 AM with a 61 Bcf build — below consensus, above the five-year norm.

Market Recap

The NYMEX December 2026 contract settled Thursday at $3.3400/MMBtu, up 12.50¢ (+3.89%) on the day — the largest gain in the energy complex — after Wednesday's 8-cent pullback from the $3.397 nine-month intraday high. The week tells the story: December is up

34.2¢ (+11.4%) from Friday's $2.9980 close, with gains in four of five sessions. The balance-of-winter 2026–27 strip rose 8¢ to about $3.24, though contracts beyond March were little changed — and April 2027 futures sit at $2.330, a multi-month low, a reminder the curve

still doubts the rally lasts past winter. Early Friday electronic trading had December near $3.31, a touch below Thursday's settlement, with the storage report now in. The December contract expires November 25, so positioning will only get more active from here.

Key Bullish and Bearish Drivers

Bullish: the weather has finally turned, and the demand is real. The nor'easter moving through the Northeast Thursday into Friday is bringing the season's first accumulating snow to the interior — the Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains, Berkshires, Catskills, and

Poconos — with rain along the I-95 corridor and temperatures running 20–25°F below seasonal averages. Lows east of the Mississippi fall into the 20s and 30s by Saturday, and the first freeze of the season reaches as far south as the Carolinas, Georgia, and Alabama. Forecasts keep the East below normal November 16–20. LNG feedgas is the structural story: flows to export plants hit 21 Bcf/d this week, a record, averaging 19.3 Bcf/d so far in November, while Lower 48 production has slipped to 112.3 Bcf/d, down from 113.4 Bcf/d in

October. LSEG expects total Lower 48 demand, including exports, to rise from 114.8 Bcf/d this week to 124.1 Bcf/d next week. And the record fund short — 636,576 short-only positions in last Friday's CFTC data — is still unwinding, with each round of covering adding fuel.

Bearish: the cold may be brief. Weather models are split on the second half of November, with some showing a return to above-normal temperatures after November 20, and the EIA expects November heating degree days to run 13% below the 10-year average. The EIA's November outlook still expects Henry Hub to average just $2.87/MMBtu this winter, citing mild weather, ample storage, and rising output. Storage sits above the five-year average, and Wednesday's selloff showed how quickly the market takes profits when forecasts stop getting colder.

Storage Fundamentals

The EIA report released this morning, covering the week ended November 6, showed a 61 Bcf injection — below the 67 Bcf consensus but above the 40 Bcf five-year average for the week. Total working gas now stands at 3,862 Bcf, 92 Bcf (−2.3%) below last year's 3,954 Bcf

but 75 Bcf (+2.0%) above the five-year average of 3,787 Bcf, and within the five-year historical range. The surplus over the five-year average widened from 54 Bcf to 75 Bcf, and the year-over-year deficit narrowed from 109 Bcf to 92 Bcf. The build came in light enough to

keep the tightness story alive, but big enough to keep the cushion intact — the market gets neither a scare nor an all-clear.

Regional Basis Markets

Northeast spot gas is finally responding to the cold. Algonquin Citygate surged 71.5¢ to $2.085/MMBtu for Thursday delivery, Transco-Leidy jumped 54% to $1.74, and Henry Hub spot hit $3.30 — a sharp turn from late last week, when Algonquin traded near $1.31,

Transco Zone 6 New York near $1.03, and Texas Eastern M-3 at $1.06 against a Henry Hub spot near $2.61. But January 2027 forwards at Algonquin still top $20/MMBtu, with January basis near $17.64 over Henry Hub — the market is pricing exactly the kind of winter spike New England knows well: last January, Winter Storm Fern drove Algonquin to

$122.58/MMBtu and Transco Zone 6 New York to $142.72. Watch Algonquin basis, not just Henry Hub. Note too that FERC on Wednesday rejected most of PJM's plan for connecting large new loads like data centers, keeping capacity tightness and upward pressure on power prices in the region. And the heating-oil side is tight: Atlantic coast distillate stocks run about 20% below last year, and the Department of Energy just loaned 300,000 barrels from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve — the first draw since Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

Production Trends

Output is easing from record highs but remains near all-time levels. Lower 48 dry gas production has averaged 112.3 Bcf/d so far in November, per LSEG, down from 113.4 Bcf/d in October and the 115.0 Bcf/d August record. Choppy output against record LNG feedgas has lifted forward prices across the United States and Canada, with the strongest gains in Southern and Northeast markets. The EIA still expects output to reach a record 116.1 Bcf/d in 2027, driven by Permian growth and new pipeline capacity, while LNG exports are

forecast at 19.0 Bcf/d in 2027 — up 26% from 2025. On power, the EIA expects record U.S. electricity generation through 2027, but renewables are set to capture much of that growth, offering limited lift for gas-fired generation. The tension in this market is unchanged: record supply growth against record export demand, with weather as the tiebreaker.

Broader Energy Context

Crude surged Thursday on the Iran story. WTI settled at $88.74/bbl (+$2.21, +2.55%) and Brent at $95.82 (+$3.06, +3.3%) after President Trump said a deal with Iran was no longer needed, following reported attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and continued

disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Early Friday, WTI is near $88.21, a touch lower — and despite Thursday's rebound, both benchmarks remain on track for weekly losses of about 2.5%. The EIA petroleum report, released Thursday after the Veterans Day delay, showed U.S. crude inventories up 4.7 million barrels for the week

ended November 6 — below the API's 9-million-barrel estimate — with builds in gasoline and distillates as well. Heating oil (ULSD) settled Thursday at $4.2865/gal (+1.79%); RBOB gasoline at $2.6708/gal (+2.43%). At the pump, AAA's national averages are $3.91 for regular

gasoline and $6.10 for diesel. On the storm front, the National Hurricane Center reports no tropical cyclone formation expected in the Atlantic in the next seven days; a cold front, not a hurricane, is the Gulf's main weather feature this week.

What Energy Buyers Should Watch

The EIA storage report landed this morning — a 61 Bcf build, below the 67 Bcf consensus; the surplus over the five-year average widened to 75 Bcf.
Whether the November 16–20 cold spell extends into December — the rally only holds if the 11–15 day outlook stays cold; a warm revision unwinds the squeeze.
LNG feedgas holding near record levels — record export pull is the market's structural floor.
December expiry on November 25 — positioning will intensify as the record short keeps unwinding.
January Algonquin basis — the season's first nor'easter is the first real test of Northeast deliverability.
Heating-oil and distillate tightness — Atlantic coast stocks about 20% below last year, and the reserve loan is a stopgap, not a fix.
The EIA's $2.87 winter Henry Hub forecast — the official view says this rally is borrowed time.

Premier Energy Management Perspective

This is a market caught between two true stories. The EIA is right that the national balance is comfortable — storage above the five-year average, production near records, no storm threat, and a warm-leaning winter outlook. But the marginal molecules tell a different story: LNG exports are setting records, production is slipping, Northeast spot gas just doubled off its lows, and the most crowded short in the market's history is still unwinding. For buyers in New Jersey and Massachusetts, the lesson is unchanged: Henry Hub is not your price.

Basis is your price, and New England winter basis is priced for exactly the kind of cold snap the forecasts have now delivered. Locking winter positions while the national market is calm costs far less than chasing them after the first freeze.

Market Bottom Line

December gas posted its highest settlement since June and its best week in months, up 11.4%, as the season's first nor'easter, record LNG demand, and a record short squeeze converged. Storage is comfortable, and the EIA still expects a mild, cheap winter — but the first real cold of the season is here; Northeast spot prices are already responding, and this morning's storage report — a 61 Bcf build — kept the cushion story intact without giving the rally an all-clear.