Natural Gas Market Update – November 25, 2025
- Tony Zelinski
- 1 day ago
- 2 min read
📉 Price Snapshot
Henry Hub futures: ~$4.64/MMBtu, down 0.76% today
Year-to-date trend: Prices are up 16% month-over-month and 33% year-over-year, reflecting stronger winter demand expectations
Short-term strip: December contracts are settling lower, with traders taking profits and positioning for colder weather ahead
⚡ Supply & Storage
Production: U.S. output hit a record 109 Bcf/d, up 4.6% year-over-year
Storage: Inventories remain 4% above the five-year average, despite the first withdrawal of the season (-14 Bcf last week)
Rig activity: Active gas rigs are near a two-year high, reinforcing supply strength
🌍 Demand Drivers
Weather outlook: Mild conditions dominate early this week, but a cold front is expected to spread into the Rockies, Great Lakes, and Northeast by Thursday, boosting heating demand
LNG exports: Flows to U.S. terminals average 18 Bcf/d in November, up from October’s record 16.6 Bcf/d
Electricity generation: U.S. output rose 5.3% year-over-year in mid-November, supporting baseline gas demand
🔎 Market Implications
Short-term bearish: Warm weather and strong production are weighing on prompt-month contracts.
Medium-term bullish: Anticipated cold weather and rising LNG exports could tighten balances into December.
Strategic takeaway: Traders should watch the $4.46 support level; a rebound could open the path back toward $4.70–$4.80.
Conclusion
Natural gas prices are softening today, but the market remains poised for volatility as colder weather approaches and LNG exports continue to climb. With production at record highs and storage levels healthy, the U.S. market is well supplied—but demand shocks from winter weather could quickly shift sentiment.
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