• Tony Zelinski

EIA-Short-Term Energy Outlook-Electricity, coal, renewables, and emissions

Electricity, coal, renewables, and emissions

EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants will rise from 34% in 2018 to 37% in 2019 and to 39% in 2020.

EIA forecasts the share of U.S. electric generation from coal to average 25% in 2019 and 22% in 2020, down from 28% in 2018. EIA’s forecast nuclear share of U.S. generation remains at about 20% in 2019 and in 2020. Hydropower averages a 7% share of total U.S. generation in the forecast for 2019 and 2020, similar to 2018. Wind, solar, and other nonhydropower renewables provided 9% of U.S. total utility-scale generation in 2018. EIA expects they will provide 10% in 2019 and 12% in 2020.

EIA expects U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 697 million short tons (MMst), which would be an 8% decline from the 2018 level. In 2020, EIA expects a further decrease in total U.S. coal production of 14%, to an annual total of 601 MMst, reflecting continued idling and closures of mines as a result of declining domestic demand.

EIA expects U.S. coal exports to total 93 MMst in 2019, and then decline by 8 MMst to 85 MMst in 2020. U.S. coking coal currently faces challenges from a global oversupply of steel, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2019. Steam coal exports have been dampened by high stockpiles in Europe and India, a top destination for U.S. shipments.

EIA expects U.S. electric power sector generation from renewables other than hydropower—principally wind and solar—to grow from 411 billion kilowatthours (kWh) in 2019 to 471 billion kWh in 2020. In EIA’s forecast, Texas accounts for 20% of the U.S. nonhydropower renewables generation in 2019 and 22% in 2020. California’s forecast share of nonhydropower renewables generation falls from 15% in 2019 to 14% in 2020. EIA expects that the Midwest and Central power regions will see shares in the 16% to 18% range for 2019 and 2020.

EIA forecasts that, after rising by 2.9% in 2018, U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decline by 1.4% in 2019 and by 2.2% in 2020, partly as a result of lower forecast energy consumption. For 2019, EIA estimates there was less demand for space cooling because of cooler summer months, with an estimated 5% decline in U.S. cooling degree days from 2018, when temperatures were significantly higher than the previous 10-year (2008–17) average. In addition, EIA also expects U.S. CO2 emissions in 2019 to decline because the forecast share of electricity generated from natural gas and renewables will increase, and the share generated from coal, which is a more carbon-intensive energy source, will decrease.

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