Cross‑Border Energy Trade: Natural Gas and Power Strengthen Amid Broader Decline

Tony Zelinski
Aug 5
2 min read

In 2025, the total value of U.S.–Canada energy trade fell 11% to $137 billion, yet natural gas and electricity bucked the trend — rising modestly thanks to stronger prices and higher volumes. This divergence underscores how infrastructure resilience and regional interdependence continue to define North American energy markets even amid tariff adjustments and shifting demand patterns.

🔹 Natural Gas: Price Recovery and Volume Growth

U.S. imports from Canada averaged 8.6 Bcf/d in 2025 — up 1% year‑over‑year.
Export volumes from the U.S. to Canada climbed 4% to 2.8 Bcf/d, while export value surged 77% to $2.6 billion.
Pipeline connectivity remains the backbone of bilateral gas flows, with western and central border crossings handling most imports and northeastern routes feeding Ontario.
Despite tariffs introduced early 2025, subsequent exemptions preserved trade fluidity under the USMCA framework.

🔹 Electricity: Modest but Strategic

Cross‑border electricity trade totaled $3.2 billion in 2025, 67% of which represented U.S. imports from Canada.
The Northeast’s reliance on Canadian power has eased slightly, yet a new transmission line commissioned in January 2026 could reverse that trend — enabling greater renewable integration and reliability support.
These flows, though smaller than oil or gas, illustrate how grid interconnection is becoming a strategic asset for decarbonization and peak‑load management.

🔹 PEM Perspective

At Premier Energy Management, we view this data as evidence of market adaptability. Even as total trade values decline, the segments most aligned with flexible infrastructure and bilateral cooperation — natural gas and electricity — are strengthening. For energy buyers, developers, and policymakers, the takeaway is clear:

Cross‑border resilience is not just about volume — it’s about optionality.

As tariffs evolve and transmission capacity expands, North American energy integration will hinge on price transparency, infrastructure investment, and policy coordination. The U.S.–Canada corridor remains a bellwether for how regional markets can balance competitiveness with reliability in a volatile global landscape.

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